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Gain powerful insights for crafting strategy in technology-rich industries, from IT to finance, and healthcare to energy
Understand the massive social impacts of technology, and how today's societal divisions shape your opportunities to innovate
For everyone who must manage new technologies and respond to technological disruption
From biotech to nanotech to big data, the pace of technological disruption continues to accelerate. Now, leading business strategy expert Alfred Marcus offers powerful tools for anticipating technological change, and managing the threats and opportunities it poses.
Through insightful case studies, Marcus offers strategic advice for overcoming the pitfalls associated with deploying emerging technologies, or responding to others who use them to compete with you.
Marcus illuminates the ongoing interplay between technological change and wider societal trends, helping you recognize new opportunities created by these interactions, and maximize the upside-both for your company and the broader society.
Whether you're an executive or strategist, technical professional or MBA student, this guide will sharpen your focus on the future so you can navigate radical technological-driven change-wherever it leads.
Emerging technologies offer immense promise for generating growth, profitability, and prosperity. But they face major obstacles to commercialization, and have environmental and social costs that must be carefully managed to maximize the benefit and mitigate the harm.
This book is about the foresight and strategic actions required for these new technologies to play a positive rather than negative role. Alfred Marcus illuminates their potential, reviews the risky decisions needed to transform potential into reality, and discusses how technologies might be used to ameliorate social problems rather than exacerbate them.
Marcus begins with insights about the strategy of technological innovation, using case studies to show why these innovations can fail, and offering methods for dealing with uncertain outcomes. Next, using examples such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, he illustrates how to better manage the dangers associated with technologies. He then turns to technology's impact on three key societal conflicts: that between young and old, rich and poor, and the potential for scarcity and abundance in energy production. Finally, he focuses on how several pairs of companies, including Intel and AMD, Dell and Acer, and Amazon and Barnes & Noble, have managed technological disruption in their industries, and the difficult challenges they now face in overcoming these challenges.
Whether you're an executive, manager, or student, you'll gain powerful insights into innovation, strategy, execution, technology management, and the fastchanging business environment in which technological change takes place.
SOURCING THE NEXT SET OF BREAKTHROUGHS
Exploring the horizon in information technology, medicine, genetics, energy, and materials
PRACTICAL BUSINESS LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGICAL FAILURES
Managing the uncertainties and dangers of technological investment and deployment
SITUATING NEW TECHNOLOGY IN A COMPLEX WORLD
How the social environment shapes technological impacts and opportunities
COPING WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION: OPEN-ENDED CASE STUDIES
How enterprises have responded to technological change, and what they might do next
Introduction 1
The Next Set of Breakthroughs 2
The Information Revolution 2
Medical Technologies 2
Genetics 2
Alternative Energy 3
Artificial Intelligence 3
Material Sciences and Nanotechnology 3
What This Book Is About 3
Part I: Technology and Strategy 4
Part II: Managing Danger 5
Part III: The Environment of Technology 5
Part IV: Coping with Technological Disruptions 6
Endnotes 8
PART I: TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY 9
Chapter 1: Technological Disruptions 11
The Powers of the Mind 11
Information Technology (IT) 12
Medical Technologies 13
Genetics 15
Alternative Energy 16
Artificial Intelligence, Material Sciences, and Nanotechnology 16
The Challenge of Commercialization 18
Endnotes 18
Chapter 2: Commercialization's Obstacles 19
Fumbling the Future at Xerox: IT 19
Medical Technology: Cochlear Implants 20
Basic Research in Diverse Labs 21
Breakthroughs in Other Disciplines 21
A Highly Committed Champion 22
Multiple Developmental Paths 22
Private Firms' Failure to Cooperate 22
Professional Endorsement 22
FDA Approval 23
Lack of Enthusiasm from the User Community 23
High Costs 23
Safety and Efficacy Concerns 23
Auxiliary Services 24
Withdrawal 24
New Entrants 24
Genetics: Agricultural Productivity 24
Sustainability as a Corporate Goal 25
Opposition 25
Rapid U.S. Market Penetration 25
More Promised Progress 26
Government Restrictions 26
Environmentalists' Criticism 26
Competition from DuPont 27
Alternative Energy: The Electric Car 27
Less Pollution and Foreign Oil 28
Range and Fossil Fuels 28
1990s' Failure 29
Hybrid Successes 29
Weak Plug-In Sales 29
Battery Subsidies from the U.S. Government 29
A Solution from Tesla and Panasonic 30
Not Yet Affordable 30
A New Business Model 31
The Slow and Arduous Path to Commercialization 31
Why Xerox Missed Its Opportunity: Game Theory 32
Setbacks at Many Points 33
Uncertain Government Support 34
Project Management Insufficient to Overcome These Problems 35
The Inclination to Undertake Safe Projects 36
Technologies Push and Markets Pull 36
Determination, Will, and Persistence 37
Endnotes 37
Chapter 3: Hedging the Uncertainty 39
Trends 40
Expert Opinion 40
Historical Analogies 41
Industry Analysis 42
Scenarios 42
Surprises 43
Taking Notice of the Periphery 43
Romances, Tragedies, and Comedies 44
The Narrative Details 44
Applying Scenario Logic to Technology Commercialization 45
Strategic Adjustments 46
Hedging 47
Gamble on the Most Probable Outcome 47
Take the Robust Route 48
Delay Until Further Clarity Emerges 49
Commit with Fallbacks 49
Shape the Future 50
Conclusion 50
Endnotes 50
PART II: MANAGING DANGER 53
Chapter 4: Dealing with Danger 55
Bhopal: What Went Wrong 55
Highly Toxic Chemicals 55
Weak Infrastructure 56
An Uncontrolled Explosion 56
Nonfunctioning Backups 57
Trapped Victims 57
Organizational Shortcomings 57
Warnings Ignored 58
The Price of the Accident 58
The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: What Went Wrong 59
Beyond Petroleum 59
Tar Sands Processing 59
Explosion in Texas City and Oil Leaks in Alaska 59
The Spill 60
The Many Mistakes 60
Inherently Dangerous Technologies 61
Dilemmas in Managing Dangerous Technologies 63
Individual Cognitive Limits 64
Experts' Cognitive Limits 64
Organizations' Cognitive Limits 64
How Much a L