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Features

Takes an engaging, informal approach to teaching discrete probability
Illustrates probability concepts through many interesting real-world examples from sports, elections, drug testing, legal cases, population growth, business, and more
Requires minimal mathematics training and no previous knowledge of probability
Includes problems at the end of each chapter that encourage students to fully understand what the question is asking before attempting to find the solution
A solutions manual and figure slides are available upon qualifying course adoption.

Summary

Elementary Probability with Applications, Second Edition shows students how probability has practical uses in many different fields, such as business, politics, and sports. In the book, students learn about probability concepts from real-world examples rather than theory.

The text explains how probability models with underlying assumptions are used to model actual situations. It contains examples of probability models as they relate to:

Bloc voting
Population genetics
Doubling strategies in casinos
Machine reliability
Airline management
Cryptology
Blood testing
Dogs resembling owners
Drug detection
Jury verdicts
Coincidences
Number of concert hall aisles
2000 U.S. presidential election
Points after deuce in tennis
Tests regarding intelligent dogs
Music composition
Based on the author's course at The College of William and Mary, the text can be used in a one-semester or one-quarter course in discrete probability with a strong emphasis on applications. By studying the book, students will appreciate the subject of probability and its applications and develop their problem-solving and reasoning skills.



Table of Contents

Basic Concepts in Probability
Sample Spaces, Events, and Probabilities
Simulations
Complementary Events and Mutually Exclusive Events
Some Probability Rules
Problem Solving
Problems

Conditional Probability and the Multiplication Rule
Conditional Probability
Multiplication Rule
Problems

Independence
Independence
A Technique for Finding P(A or B or C or .)
Problems

Combining the Addition and Multiplication Rules
Combining the Addition and Multiplication Rules
Bayes´ Formula
Trees
Problems

Combining the Addition and Multiplication Rules-Applications
Simpson's Paradox
Randomized Response Designs
Applications in Cryptology
Hardy-Weinberg Principle
Problems

Random Variables, Distributions, and Expected Values
Random Variables, Distributions, and Expected Values
Problems

Joint Distributions and Conditional Expectations
Joint Distributions
Independent Random Variables
Conditional Distributions
Conditional Expectations
Problems

Sampling without Replacement
Counting Formula
Probabilities for Sampling without Replacement
Problems

Sampling with Replacement
Binomial Model
Problems

Sampling with Replacement (Continued)
Binomial Model (Continued)
Problems

Binomial Tests
Introduction
Binomial Tests
Problems

Appendix

Short Answers to Selected Exercises

Bibliography

Index