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The groundbreaking book that details the fundamentals of reliability modeling and evaluation and introduces new and future technologies

Electric Power Grid Reliability Evaluation deals with the effective evaluation of the electric power grid and explores the role that this process plays in the planning and designing of the expansion of the power grid. The book is a guide to the theoretical approaches and processes that underpin the electric power grid and reviews the most current and emerging technologies designed to ensure reliability. The authors-noted experts in the field-also present the algorithms that have been developed for analyzing the soundness of the power grid.

A comprehensive resource, the book covers probability theory, stochastic processes, and a frequency-based approach in order to provide a theoretical foundation for reliability analysis. Throughout the book, the concepts presented are explained with illustrative examples that connect with power systems. The authors cover generation adequacy methods, and multi-node analysis which includes both multi-area as well as composite power system reliable evaluation. This important book:

 Provides a guide to the basic methods of reliability modeling and evaluation

 Contains a helpful review of the background of power system reliability evaluation

 Includes information on new technology sources that have the potential to create a more reliable power grid

 Addresses renewable energy sources and shows how they affect power outages and blackouts that pose new challenges to the power grid system

Written for engineering students and professionals, Electric Power Grid Reliability Evaluation is an essential book that explores the processes and algorithms for creating a sound and reliable power grid



TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface xiii

Acknowledgments xv

Figures xvii

Tables xxi

Part I Concepts and Methods in System Reliability 1

1 Introduction to Reliability 3

1.1 Introduction 3

1.2 Quantitative Reliability 4

1.3 Basic Approaches for Considering Reliability in Decision-Making 6

1.4 Objective and Scope of This Book 8

1.5 Organization of This Book 9

2 Review of Probability Theory 11

2.1 Introduction 11

2.2 State Space and Event 11

2.3 Probability Measure and Related Rules 16

2.4 Random Variables 25

2.5 Jointly Distributed Random Variables 31

2.6 Expectation, Variance, Covariance and Correlation 32

2.7 Moment Generating Function 36

2.8 Functions of Random Variables 39

Exercises 51

3 Review of Stochastic Process 53

3.1 Introduction 53

3.2 Discrete-Time Markov Process 57

3.3 Continuous-Time Markov Process 72

Exercises 80

4 Frequency-Based Approach to Stochastic Process 81

4.1 Introduction 81

4.2 Concept of Transition Rate 82

4.3 Concept of Frequency 83

4.4 Concept of Frequency Balance 91

4.5 Equivalent Transition Rate 100

4.6 Coherence 102

4.7 Conditional Frequency 104

4.8 Time-Specific Frequency 109

4.9 Probability to Frequency Conversion Rules 110

Exercises 115

5 Analytical Methods in Reliability Analysis 117

5.1 Introduction 117

5.2 State Space Approach 117

5.3 Network Reduction Method 139

5.4 Conditional Probability Method 147

5.5 Cut-Set and Tie-Set Methods 152

Exercises 164

6 Monte Carlo Simulation 165

6.1 Introduction 165

6.2 Random Number Generation 166

6.3 Classification of Monte Carlo Simulation Methods 167

6.4 Estimation and Convergence in Sampling 174

6.5 Variance Reduction Techniques 178

Exercises 182

Part II Methods of Power System Reliability Modeling and Analysis 185

7 Introduction to Power System Reliability 187

7.1 Introduction 187

7.2 Scope of Power System Reliability Studies 187

7.3 Power System Reliability Indices 188

7.4 Considerations in Power System Reliability Evaluation 190

8 Generation Adequacy Evaluation Using Discrete Convolution 193

8.1 Introduction 193

8.2 Generation Model 193

8.3 Load Model 205

8.4 Generation Reserve Model 208

8.5 Determination of Reliability Indices 210

8.6 Conclusion 212

Exercises 213

9 Reliability Analysis of Multinode Power Systems 215

9.1 Introduction 215

9.2 Scope and Modeling of Multinode Systems 215

9.3 System Modeling 216

9.4 Power Flow Models and Operating Policies 222

10 Reliability Evaluation of Multi-Area Power Systems 227

10.1 Introduction 227

10.2 Overview of Methods for Multi-Area System Studies 227

10.3 The Method of State Space Decomposition 229

10.4 Conclusion 245

Exercises 245

11 Reliability Evaluation of Composite Power Systems 247

11.1 Introduction 247

11.2 Analytical Methods 247

11.3 Monte Carlo Simulation 250

11.4 Sequential Simulation 250

11.5 Nonsequential Simulation 254

11.6 Testing of States 262

11.7 Acceleration of Convergence 263

11.8 State Space Pruning: Concept and Method 263

11.9 Intelligent Search Techniques 268

11.10 Conclusion 272

12 Power System Reliability Considerations in Energy Planning 273

12.1 Introduction 273

12.2 Problem Formulation 275

12.3 Sample Average Approximation (SAA) 279

12.4 Computational Results 282

12.5 Conclusion and Discussion 288

13 Modeling of Variable Energy Resources 291

13.1 Introduction 291

13.2 Characteristics of Variable Energy Resources 292

13.3 Variable Resource Modeling Approaches 293

13.4 Integrating Renewables at the Composite System Level 301

14 Concluding Reflections 305

Bibliography 309

Index 321