Librería Portfolio

Gain powerful insights for crafting strategy in technology-rich industries, from IT to finance, and healthcare to energy
Understand the massive social impacts of technology, and how today's societal divisions shape your opportunities to innovate
For everyone who must manage new technologies and respond to technological disruption
From biotech to nanotech to big data, the pace of technological disruption continues to accelerate. Now, leading business strategy expert Alfred Marcus offers powerful tools for anticipating technological change, and managing the threats and opportunities it poses.

Through insightful case studies, Marcus offers strategic advice for overcoming the pitfalls associated with deploying emerging technologies, or responding to others who use them to compete with you.

Marcus illuminates the ongoing interplay between technological change and wider societal trends, helping you recognize new opportunities created by these interactions, and maximize the upside-both for your company and the broader society.

Whether you're an executive or strategist, technical professional or MBA student, this guide will sharpen your focus on the future so you can navigate radical technological-driven change-wherever it leads.

Emerging technologies offer immense promise for generating growth, profitability, and prosperity. But they face major obstacles to commercialization, and have environmental and social costs that must be carefully managed to maximize the benefit and mitigate the harm.

This book is about the foresight and strategic actions required for these new technologies to play a positive rather than negative role. Alfred Marcus illuminates their potential, reviews the risky decisions needed to transform potential into reality, and discusses how technologies might be used to ameliorate social problems rather than exacerbate them.

Marcus begins with insights about the strategy of technological innovation, using case studies to show why these innovations can fail, and offering methods for dealing with uncertain outcomes. Next, using examples such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, he illustrates how to better manage the dangers associated with technologies. He then turns to technology's impact on three key societal conflicts: that between young and old, rich and poor, and the potential for scarcity and abundance in energy production. Finally, he focuses on how several pairs of companies, including Intel and AMD, Dell and Acer, and Amazon and Barnes & Noble, have managed technological disruption in their industries, and the difficult challenges they now face in overcoming these challenges.

Whether you're an executive, manager, or student, you'll gain powerful insights into innovation, strategy, execution, technology management, and the fastchanging business environment in which technological change takes place.

SOURCING THE NEXT SET OF BREAKTHROUGHS

Exploring the horizon in information technology, medicine, genetics, energy, and materials

PRACTICAL BUSINESS LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGICAL FAILURES

Managing the uncertainties and dangers of technological investment and deployment

SITUATING NEW TECHNOLOGY IN A COMPLEX WORLD

How the social environment shapes technological impacts and opportunities

COPING WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION: OPEN-ENDED CASE STUDIES

How enterprises have responded to technological change, and what they might do next



Introduction 1

The Next Set of Breakthroughs 2

The Information Revolution 2

Medical Technologies 2

Genetics 2

Alternative Energy 3

Artificial Intelligence 3

Material Sciences and Nanotechnology 3

What This Book Is About 3

Part I: Technology and Strategy 4

Part II: Managing Danger 5

Part III: The Environment of Technology 5

Part IV: Coping with Technological Disruptions 6

Endnotes 8

PART I: TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY 9

Chapter 1: Technological Disruptions 11

The Powers of the Mind 11

Information Technology (IT) 12

Medical Technologies 13

Genetics 15

Alternative Energy 16

Artificial Intelligence, Material Sciences, and Nanotechnology 16

The Challenge of Commercialization 18

Endnotes 18

Chapter 2: Commercialization's Obstacles 19

Fumbling the Future at Xerox: IT 19

Medical Technology: Cochlear Implants 20

Basic Research in Diverse Labs 21

Breakthroughs in Other Disciplines 21

A Highly Committed Champion 22

Multiple Developmental Paths 22

Private Firms' Failure to Cooperate 22

Professional Endorsement 22

FDA Approval 23

Lack of Enthusiasm from the User Community 23

High Costs 23

Safety and Efficacy Concerns 23

Auxiliary Services 24

Withdrawal 24

New Entrants 24

Genetics: Agricultural Productivity 24

Sustainability as a Corporate Goal 25

Opposition 25

Rapid U.S. Market Penetration 25

More Promised Progress 26

Government Restrictions 26

Environmentalists' Criticism 26

Competition from DuPont 27

Alternative Energy: The Electric Car 27

Less Pollution and Foreign Oil 28

Range and Fossil Fuels 28

1990s' Failure 29

Hybrid Successes 29

Weak Plug-In Sales 29

Battery Subsidies from the U.S. Government 29

A Solution from Tesla and Panasonic 30

Not Yet Affordable 30

A New Business Model 31

The Slow and Arduous Path to Commercialization 31

Why Xerox Missed Its Opportunity: Game Theory 32

Setbacks at Many Points 33

Uncertain Government Support 34

Project Management Insufficient to Overcome These Problems 35

The Inclination to Undertake Safe Projects 36

Technologies Push and Markets Pull 36

Determination, Will, and Persistence 37

Endnotes 37

Chapter 3: Hedging the Uncertainty 39

Trends 40

Expert Opinion 40

Historical Analogies 41

Industry Analysis 42

Scenarios 42

Surprises 43

Taking Notice of the Periphery 43

Romances, Tragedies, and Comedies 44

The Narrative Details 44

Applying Scenario Logic to Technology Commercialization 45

Strategic Adjustments 46

Hedging 47

Gamble on the Most Probable Outcome 47

Take the Robust Route 48

Delay Until Further Clarity Emerges 49

Commit with Fallbacks 49

Shape the Future 50

Conclusion 50

Endnotes 50

PART II: MANAGING DANGER 53

Chapter 4: Dealing with Danger 55

Bhopal: What Went Wrong 55

Highly Toxic Chemicals 55

Weak Infrastructure 56

An Uncontrolled Explosion 56

Nonfunctioning Backups 57

Trapped Victims 57

Organizational Shortcomings 57

Warnings Ignored 58

The Price of the Accident 58

The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: What Went Wrong 59

Beyond Petroleum 59

Tar Sands Processing 59

Explosion in Texas City and Oil Leaks in Alaska 59

The Spill 60

The Many Mistakes 60

Inherently Dangerous Technologies 61

Dilemmas in Managing Dangerous Technologies 63

Individual Cognitive Limits 64

Experts' Cognitive Limits 64

Organizations' Cognitive Limits 64

How Much a L